You’ve probably heard of Kiribati by now. If you haven’t, then you know, it’s one of those Pacific Island atoll nations that are facing being wiped off the map by climate change. Well at least that’s what’s in store in the longer-term for them if we continue with business as usual. Here’s the deal: by 2030, sea level in Kiribati is projected to rise between 5-14cm, and by 2100 it’s likely to be at least 1 meter – which would be enough to swamp most of the islands.
Over the last 20 years, sea level has risen 1–4mm per year across Kiribati, which is below the global average of 2.8-3.6mm per year, but it is still significant enough to cause salt water intrusion into groundwater in places at king tides, and coastal erosion. How much of that sea level rise is due to climate change is not clear either – because phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cause natural fluctuations in sea level that are hard to quantify. So relocation is on the horizon, but probably not for another decade or two at least.
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